50 lacs population in Amaravati -Vijayawada -Guntur by 2020 ?? Why not ??

amaravati street viewJ.Vishnu Shankar:

The government of Andhra Pradesh has started functioning out of the new capital of Amaravati. It is a complete shift from Hyderabad and not a piecemeal effort. The CM, all his ministers, all departments and the secretariat are now functioning out of Amaravati ( or Vijayawada and Guntur) except for some skeletal staff who are in Hyderabad for some specific purposes.

What does this actually mean for the tri-cities of Amaravati, Vijayawada and Guntur ? Some of you may be amused that I am calling Amaravati a city and also calling this area as tri-cities. Is not the present Amaravati just plain agri lands and are not these three disconnected towns too far away from each other to be bunched into one phrase as tri-cities, one may ask. Valid point. But valid just for now as the future will dawn at such rapid speed that the situation will change before one takes a leisurely wink. I will explain.

Let us look at Amaravati. The present population in the 34,000 acres of land pooled for the construction of capital city will be less than 50,000 people. But what might happen before 2019 can be visualised as following. 

  • It is a fair bet to assume that the whole state government of around 60,000 employees who are now working from various rented buildings in Amaravati, Vijayawada and Guntur will start living in Amaravati by 2019.
  • It is also a fair bet to assume that several state-specific central offices too will start working from Amaravati. One will be surprised to know that every state capital usually has more than hundred central government offices. For example, CLICK HERE for list of central govt offices in Hyderbad. All AP related central offices are still in Hyderabad and will shift to Amaravati one by one over the next 2 years. Only state govt has shifted so far.
  • Then what about private sector ? We all know that all private companies which deal in consumer goods or durables will have branch offices in state capitals along with warehouses to store their goods. Back of the envelop calculation tells me that there will at least be 700-1000 companies who will open a branch or at least a C&F agent in Amaravati in the next 2 years.
  • The above will be a compulsory shift to Amaravati and the number of people who will have to compulsorily start working out of Amaravati by 2019 will be a staggering 1.5 lac people.
  • Now here is the side effect of this complsory migration. Every 1 job job in organised sector generates 3-6 jobs in the unorganised sector. For safety of calculation, lets take the smaller number of 3. That is another 4.5 lacs of unorganised sector workforce. And who constitute this 4.5 lac workforce ? It can be doctors, lawyers, vegetable vendors, provision store owners, real estate agents, hotel and restaurant staff, drivers, cleaners, maids, teachers, cable TV operaters, journalists, newspaper vendors, or any one else you can think of.
  • What does this all add up to ? It works out to at least 6 lacs of workforce. May be even more. Taking a minimum of 3 per family, Amaravati will be a city of 18 lacs before you even understand what is happening.

Look at this 18 lacs population in perspective. It is more than the present Vijayawada. These 18 lac people will close the boundaries of Amaravati-Vijayawada-Guntur and make it one big metropolitan tri-city. And by 2020, these tri-cities will be home to a minimum of 40 lac people. But considering what this huge growth will do to the present Vijayawada and Guntur population, I will put the figure closer to 50 lacs.

Hyderabad and Bangalore were closer to 40 lacs as per the 2001 census. If you thought they were big cities at the beginning of the millennium, Amaravati will be right there at that level. And one better news !! Hyderabad and Bangalore has 25% slum dwellers and this 50 lacs number of Amaravati – Vijayawada-Guntur may not include any or at best may account for not more than 5% slum dwellers.

Hey my fellow Andhrites !! Do not worry too much about losing Hyderabad to Telangana. If it is only for the revenue generation potential of the city, Andhra will surely have a 50 lacs Amaravati and 30 lac Vizag by 2020. And we will also have a Kakinada, a Rajamundry, a Nellore, a Tirupati and several other smaller thriving towns which will contribute big time to Andhra exchequer. 

So guys, trash the past and welcome the future !! The future is here and it is happening right now !!

 

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One thought on “50 lacs population in Amaravati -Vijayawada -Guntur by 2020 ?? Why not ??

  1. Vishnu shankar garu your articles are well written with well researched facts and will be looking forward to read more of your articles. I believe andhra will be a great state.

    Like

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